Youth Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug Markets.


Series: NIJ Research Preview
Published: December 1995
4 pages
7,980 bytes

Youth Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug Markets

The perception that violence is on the rise is
supported by data showing a sharp increase in
violent crime among juveniles since the mid-1980's.
Although gender and race account for large
differences in involvement in crime, age has become
a major factor. Between 1985 and 1992, the number
of homicides committed by young people, the number
of homicides they committed with guns, and the
arrest rate for nonwhite juveniles for drug
offenses doubled. These increases appear to be
linked to the involvement of juveniles in the
illegal drug trade and the availability of guns.

Age, murder, and illegal drug use

Age and murder. It has long been known that crime
rates typically peak in the late teen years, and
age-specific patterns for such crimes as robbery
and burglary have not changed significantly in the
past 20 years. However, major changes have occurred
in homicide patterns among the young. From 1965 to
1985, individuals ages 18 to 24 were the most
likely of any age group to commit murder, and the
murder rate among this group was relatively steady.

In 1985, murder by people under 24 began to
increase; among 18 year-olds, the homicide rate
doubled between 1985 and 1992. During that same
period, the rate among those 24 to 30 remained
steady, and the rate declined for those over 30,
but the rate for 16 year-olds increased 138
percent. Thus, much of the rise in the Nation's
overall homicide rate in the late 1980's was due to
the surge in killings by the young.

To further illustrate the dimensions of this
change, a calculation can be made to show the
"excess" murders attributable to young people,
i.e., the homicides that would not have been
committed if the rates for ages 15-22 had remained
stable. The number of average annual excess murders
is estimated to be 2,700--about 12 percent of the
annual average of 22,000 murders during that 7-year
period. This means 186,000 excess murders are
estimated to have been committed between 1985 and
1992.

In the period studied, the murder arrest rate for
white juveniles for homicide jumped 80 percent; for
nonwhites it rose about 120 percent.

Age, race, and illegal drugs. The surge in violent
juvenile crime coincided with an increase in drug
arrests, which rose particularly among nonwhites in
urban areas. After a 10-year decline, juvenile drug
arrests began to increase sharply for nonwhites in
1985. This reflected in part the degree to which
drug enforcement has focused on street drug
markets, which more often involve black drug
dealers. The number of arrests rose from
approximately 200 per 100,000 in 1985 to twice that
amount 4 years later; for white youths, drug
arrests declined, in part because of a policy
shift, begun in 1975, that reversed their rapidly
growing drug arrest rate, primarily for marijuana.
The increase in arrests of nonwhites (particularly
African Americans) reflects the appearance of large
crack markets on urban streets and the recruitment
of unemployed inner-city youths as drug marketers.

Murder with guns. Guns are increasingly involved in
homicides among youths. From 1976 to 1985, a gun
was used in an average of 59 percent of homicides
involving juveniles ages 10 to 17. Seven years
later, the number of juvenile murders involving a
gun had doubled; the number of homicides committed
without guns remained stable.

The linkage: a hypothesis

As more juveniles were recruited to sell crack,
they armed themselves with guns. For those
transporting valuable merchandise, whether money or
drugs, a gun was seen as effective protection,
especially because they could not call for police
assistance if threatened. Since juveniles were
tightly networked and in close contact with each
other at school and in their neighborhoods,
firearms from juvenile drug sellers became diffused
throughout the community. Those not in the drug
trade also believed a gun could provide protection
(as well as status and power). As more people felt
threatened by the firearms around them, they too
obtained guns.

Juveniles' use of firearms is more random than
adults'. Teenage behavior is often marked by
recklessness and bravado, while adults generally
act with more restraint. Until recently, the
majority of homicide cases involved people who knew
each other. Overall, between 1976 and 1991, the
proportion of homicides involving strangers was
about 20 percent. But when male juveniles were
involved, the figure climbed to 34 percent.

The increase in murders may thus be linked to the
diffusion of guns into the hands of juveniles and
to the general community--a result of the growth in
numbers of youths in the illegal drug trade.
Disputes once settled by fist fights have escalated
to shooting incidents.

Implications

Demographics and crime. Meanwhile, the
incarceration rate in this country has grown
dramatically. In 1973, it was about 110 per
100,000. Since then, the rate has tripled to 351
per 100,000 in State and Federal prisons. In fact,
locking up the adults may have contributed to the
recruitment of juveniles into the drug trade.
Of particular relevance to future crime rates is
the current number of teenagers in the population.
The age group responsible for much of the youth
violence, the 18 year-olds, is the smallest it has
been in recent years. As this population ages,
crime may level out as has happened in the past.
But it is also possible that the 18 year-olds
currently responsible for the higher homicide rates
will continue their reckless behavior as they age.
Children now ages 5 to 15 are a much larger cohort
than the current 18 year-old group. If trends
continue, violent crime is likely to increase as
these younger children become teenagers.

Options to change the trends. A concerted effort
needs to be made to get firearms out of the hands
of young people. In most cases it is not a
legislative issue--the possession of most firearms
by juveniles is illegal. Stronger enforcement and
other avenues of depleting the gun supply need to
be found, especially in urban areas and inner
cities. Seven cities account for 25 percent of all
the homicides in the United States. New York City,
for example, accounts for 8 percent; Los Angeles
adds another 5 percent.

Some communities are trying new ways to cut down
the number of guns. Pittsburgh established a "gun
task force" that is examining a variety of
approaches, including radio and television
advertisements with an 800 number people can call
anonymously to report illegal guns.

In the long term, a major effort has to be made to
build a knowledge base by involving the research
community in examining juvenile crime and its
causes--the links between drugs in the community,
guns in the illegal drug trade and the community in
general, and the rate of homicides among young
people. Financial resources need to be made
available to study the problem in depth. The
effects of the war on drugs and of mandatory
sentencing policies also need to be examined.

This summary is based on a presentation by Alfred
Blumstein, Ph.D., J. Erik Jonsson University
Professor of Urban Systems and Operations Research
at the H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy
Management, Carnegie Mellon University. As part of
NIJ's Research in Progress Seminar Series, Dr.
Blumstein discussed his work with an audience of
researchers and criminal justice professionals and
practitioners. A 60-minute VHS videotape, Youth
Violence, Guns, and Illicit Drug Markets, is
available for $19 ($25 in Canada and other foreign
countries). Ask for NCJ 152235. 

Dr. Blumstein's research is being extended with an
NIJ grant on juvenile violence and its relationship
to drug markets.