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Notes
1 The numbers presented here are an extrapolation
of data from the National Child Abuse and
Neglect Data System (NCANDS) Summary Data
Component (SDC). NCANDS actually reported
124,467 cases of substantiated child sexual
abuse in 1992, based on 49 States (including the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) and 99,278 cases
in 1998, based on 48 States. These totals were
extrapolated for the 50 States and the District of
Columbia based on the national child population
as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau (see discussion
of NCANDS and the Annual Fifty State
Survey above).
2 Totals presented in the text of this Bulletin do
not include data from Guam, Puerto Rico, or the
Virgin Islands. Included, to the extent that the
data are available or in extrapolated totals, are all
50 States and the District of Columbia. The 50
States and the District of Columbia are referred to
as “States” throughout the paper. When information
was available for fewer than the total possible
number of 51, it is clarified in the text.
3 Prevent Child Abuse America estimates the
number of reports through the following procedure:
States are asked to provide the percentage
of reports received by their agencies that were
child sexual abuse allegations. Only 25–33 States
have been able to provide these statistics each
year. National reports are estimated based on the
assumption that the remaining States experience
similar proportions of reports by maltreatment
type. The percentage of reports that are child
sexual abuse allegations are averaged across the
participating States. That average is used to calculate
an estimate from the total number of reports
received by all States. In 1998, a total of
3,154,000 reports were made to child protective
services (CPS) agencies. Twenty-eight States
reported that an average of 10 percent of their
reports were child sexual abuse allegations. An
estimate of 315,400 reports of child sexual abuse
was therefore calculated for this year. However,
differences in the number of States submitting
data can greatly alter the estimated reports.
Wang and Harding (1999, p. 10) note that “within
the 22 States providing data for both 1997 and
1998, the percentage of child sexual abuse cases
remains consistent at 8 percent.” If an 8-percent
average were used instead of 10 percent, the
resulting estimate of child sexual abuse reports
would be 252,320. This is still an increase from
1997, but a more modest 13-percent increase
compared with the reported 41-percent increase.
This example highlights the need for increased
reliability and consistency in CPS
administrative data so that the pattern of child
maltreatment can be interpreted with greater
confidence.
4 Prevent Child Abuse America reported that
in 1998, the latest year for which data are available,
the total number of maltreatment reports
decreased slightly from the previous year for
the first time ever (Wang and Harding, 1999).
5 For each State, the percent change from 1992
to 1998 was calculated for the following variables:
child sexual abuse, forcible rape (UCR
data), aggravated assault (UCR data), child poverty,
high school dropout, teen pregnancy, single
parent households, teen suicide, and parent unemployment.
Correlations between child sexual
abuse and all other variables were small (r<0.12) and nonsignificant.
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| The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases |
Juvenile
Justice Bulletin •January 2001 |
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