 | Administrator's Message |
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| Administrator's Message |
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Earlier this decade, certain researchers promoted a theory of the emergence of a generation of young, violent "superpredators" in the next century. Based on demographic projections of a growing juvenile population over the next 20 years and a sharp increase in juvenile arrest rates for violent crimes beginning in the mid-1980's, the theory gained plausibility from a series of highly publicized violent youth crimes. With the mantle of scientific credibility and extensive media coverage, these dire predictions caught the attention of legislators and the public at large and soon were accepted as conventional wisdom. Fortunately, however, these concerns have been greatly alleviated as juvenile crime indicators have persistently dropped over the past several years. The FBI's recently released 1998 crime statistics showing a 1-year, 8-percent drop in juvenile violent crime arrests offer further reassurance that the day of the "superpredator" is not at hand. This Bulletin, extracted from Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 1999 National Report, takes a close look at the juvenile crime numbers and demonstrates that the predicted emergence of a new kind of violent youth is not supported by the most recent data. Statistical evidence presented in the Report indicates that levels of predatory crimes such as rape, robbery, and murder committed by juveniles have dropped significantly over the past several years, with robbery at its lowest level in a generation. The decrease in juvenile crime will be fleeting, however, if we fail to temper the good news with caution. We need to continue focusing our efforts on combating juvenile crime with programs that have proven to be effective in reducing juvenile delinquency and violence. We also need to be vigilant in countering myths with facts and letting the most up-to-date data guide policy. As Attorney General Janet Reno has stated, this is the best way to ensure that demographics do not become destiny. Shay Bilchik
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